Large-Scale Simulation Models in Population and Development: What Use to Planners? Export

@article{Arthur&McNicoll75, abstract = {Large-Scale simulation modeling has recently emerged as a widely supported approach to policy evaluation in population and development. More than a dozen large computer models, multipurpose, disaggregated, and highly endogenous, now exist; others are being built. This paper examines the thinking behind these models and assesses their potential use to development planners. The model builders claim to provide a valuable tool for policy evaluation by tracing out both qualitatively and numerically the long-term implications of policy decisions. This claim is disputed. Specific faults identified include inappropriate accounting structures, over simplyfying of issues behind a superficial complexity, and a lack of concern with validation. Smaller, issue-specific models are preferred.}, author = {Arthur, W. Brian and McNicoll, Geoffrey}, citeulike-article-id = {5922475}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1972223}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972223}, doi = {10.2307/1972223}, issn = {00987921}, journal = {Population and Development Review}, keywords = {complex, mathematical-modelling, simulations, systems, validity}, number = {2}, pages = {251--265}, posted-at = {2009-10-11 21:26:25}, priority = {3}, publisher = {Population Council}, title = {Large-Scale Simulation Models in Population and Development: What Use to Planners?}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1972223}, volume = {1}, year = {1975} }

TY - JOUR ID - Arthur&McNicoll75 L3 - citeulike-article-id:5922475 N2 - Large-Scale simulation modeling has recently emerged as a widely supported approach to policy evaluation in population and development. More than a dozen large computer models, multipurpose, disaggregated, and highly endogenous, now exist; others are being built. This paper examines the thinking behind these models and assesses their potential use to development planners. The model builders claim to provide a valuable tool for policy evaluation by tracing out both qualitatively and numerically the long-term implications of policy decisions. This claim is disputed. Specific faults identified include inappropriate accounting structures, over simplyfying of issues behind a superficial complexity, and a lack of concern with validation. Smaller, issue-specific models are preferred. IS - 2 JF - Population and Development Review SN - 00987921 EP - 265 TI - Large-Scale Simulation Models in Population and Development: What Use to Planners? PB - Population Council VL - 1 SP - 251 KW - complex KW - mathematical-modelling KW - simulations KW - systems KW - validity AU - Arthur, Brian AU - McNicoll, Geoffrey PY - 1975/// UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1972223 ER -