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The equity premium: A puzzle Export

Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2. (March 1985), pp. 145-161.

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aarmacro asset_pricing macroeconomics

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Restrictions that a class of general equilibrium models place upon the average returns of equity and Treasury bills are found to be strongly violated by the U.S. data in the 1889-1978 period. This result is robust to model specification and measurement problems. We conclude that, most likely, an equilibrium model which is not an Arrow-Debreu economy will be the one that simultaneously rationalizes both historically observed large average equity return and the small average risk-free return.


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