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The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances Export

The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 4. (1989), pp. 655-673.

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We interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances. Demand disturbances have a hump-shaped mirror-image effect on output and unemployment. The effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time, peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years.


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