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The Equity Premium Implied by Production Export

(7 April 2005)

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We study the implications of producers’ first-order conditions for the link between investment and aggregate asset prices. We provide a characterization of the determinants of the equity premium. Specifically, we present a closed form expression for the Sharpe ratio at steady-state as a function of investment volatility and adjustment cost curvature only. Calibrated to the U.S. postwar economy, the model can generate a sizeable equity premium, with reasonable volatility for market returns and risk free rates. The market’s Sharpe ratio and the market price of risk are very volatile. Contrary to most models, our model generates a negative correlation between conditional means and standard deviations of excess returns.


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