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Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Vol. 164, No. 3-4. (October 2007), pp. 197-207, doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2007.07.001 Key: citeulike:12069095
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We investigate the temporal distribution of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field. In spite of the common assumption that the reversal sequence can be modeled as a realization of a renewal Poisson process with a variable rate, we show that the polarity reversals strongly depart from a local Poisson statistics. The origin of this failure can be attributed to temporal clustering, thus suggesting the presence of long-range correlations in the underlying dynamo process. In this framework we compare our results with the behaviour of different models that describe the time evolution of the reversals.
This article examines statistical data on the times between different geomagnetic reversals. In 2000, one researcher hypothesized that the time between reversals is a poissonian process with a time-dependent gamma parameter; the authors of this study are primarily examining this hypothesis. They first define a statistical test to determine whether or not a dataset would fit the proposed poissonian process. Then, they perform this test on 4 independent empirical datasets and find significant deviations in all 4 sets from a poissonian distribution. They also perform this test on datasets generated by 4 different dynamo simulations and also find significant deviations. Finally, they conclude that the time between polarity reversals does not follow a poissonian distribution. They further remark that this could be caused by the non-linearity of the geodynamo, which is responsible for the generation and variation of the earth's magnetosphere.
This study is useful to our project because it helps answer questions related to predicting polarity reversals based on the passage of time.
The authors use basic hypothesis testing and examine 4 independent, large empirical data sets as well as 4 independent geodynamo models. Given that each of these 8 independent data sets show deviation, as well as it and most of studies it references all being no more than 10 years old, I believe this study to be reliable.
Sorriso-Valvo, L., Stefani, F., Carbone, V., Nigro, G., Lepreti, F., Vecchio, A., and Veltri, P. (2007). A statistical analysis of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 164(3-4):197-207.
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