First story detection in TDT is hard
We discuss two Topics Detection and Tracking (TDT) event-based information organization tasks: tracking and first story detection. We show that when a first story detection system is based upon tracking technology, we can expect that performance will be poor. That prediction is consistent with actual performance in TDT evaluations. We then show that to achieve high-quality first story detection, tracking effectiveness must improve to a degree that experience suggests in unlikely. We conclude that effective first story detection is either impossible or requires substantially different approaches.