Sudden Infant Death or Murder? A Royal Confusion About Probabilities Export

@article{citeulike:1433069, abstract = {In this article I criticize the recommendations of some prominent statisticians about how to estimate and compare probabilities of the repeated sudden infant death and repeated murder. The issue has drawn considerable public attention in connection with several recent court cases in the UK. I try to show that when the three components of the Bayesian inference are carefully analyzed in this context, the advice of the statisticians turns out to be problematic in each of the steps. 1 Introduction 2 Setting the Stage: Bayes's Theorem 3 Prior Probabilities of Single SIDS and Single Homicide 4 Prior Probabilities of the Recurrence of SIDS and Homicide 5 Likelihoods of Double SIDS and Double Homicide 6 Posterior Probabilities of Double SIDS and Double Homicide 7 Conclusion 10.1093/bjps/axm015}, author = {Sesardic, Neven}, citeulike-article-id = {1433069}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axm015}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://bjps.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/58/2/299}, day = {1}, doi = {10.1093/bjps/axm015}, journal = {Br J Philos Sci}, keywords = {bayesian, probability, statistics}, month = {June}, number = {2}, pages = {299--329}, posted-at = {2007-07-04 13:36:37}, priority = {2}, title = {Sudden Infant Death or Murder? A Royal Confusion About Probabilities}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axm015}, volume = {58}, year = {2007} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:1433069 L3 - citeulike-article-id:1433069 N2 - In this article I criticize the recommendations of some prominent statisticians about how to estimate and compare probabilities of the repeated sudden infant death and repeated murder. The issue has drawn considerable public attention in connection with several recent court cases in the UK. I try to show that when the three components of the Bayesian inference are carefully analyzed in this context, the advice of the statisticians turns out to be problematic in each of the steps. 1 Introduction 2 Setting the Stage: Bayes's Theorem 3 Prior Probabilities of Single SIDS and Single Homicide 4 Prior Probabilities of the Recurrence of SIDS and Homicide 5 Likelihoods of Double SIDS and Double Homicide 6 Posterior Probabilities of Double SIDS and Double Homicide 7 Conclusion 10.1093/bjps/axm015 IS - 2 JF - Br J Philos Sci EP - 329 TI - Sudden Infant Death or Murder? A Royal Confusion About Probabilities VL - 58 SP - 299 KW - bayesian KW - probability KW - statistics AU - Sesardic, Neven PY - 2007/06/01/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axm015 ER -