Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach Export

@article{citeulike:5041251, abstract = {A new method is proposed for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. This approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. Ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics are combined to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data observed discretely and possibly with error. The model is a generalization of the Lee–Carter (LC) model commonly used in mortality and fertility forecasting. The methodology is applied to French mortality data and Australian fertility data, and the forecasts obtained are shown to be superior to those from the LC method and several of its variants.}, author = {Hyndman, R. and Shahidullah, M.}, citeulike-article-id = {5041251}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.07.028}, citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167947306002453}, day = {15}, doi = {10.1016/j.csda.2006.07.028}, issn = {01679473}, journal = {Computational Statistics \& Data Analysis}, keywords = {autoregressive, fda}, month = {June}, number = {10}, pages = {4942--4956}, posted-at = {2009-07-02 12:23:53}, priority = {2}, title = {Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.07.028}, volume = {51}, year = {2007} }

TY - JOUR ID - citeulike:5041251 L3 - citeulike-article-id:5041251 N2 - A new method is proposed for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. This approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. Ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics are combined to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data observed discretely and possibly with error. The model is a generalization of the Lee–Carter (LC) model commonly used in mortality and fertility forecasting. The methodology is applied to French mortality data and Australian fertility data, and the forecasts obtained are shown to be superior to those from the LC method and several of its variants. IS - 10 JF - Computational Statistics & Data Analysis SN - 01679473 EP - 4956 TI - Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach VL - 51 SP - 4942 KW - autoregressive KW - fda AU - Hyndman, R AU - Shahidullah, M PY - 2007/06/15/ UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2006.07.028 ER -