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Accounting Changes And Earnings Predictability Export

The Accounting Review, Vol. 65, No. 1. (January 1990), pp. 157-175.

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accounting analysis correlation disclosure earnings errors forecasting lifo mathematical models procedures studies

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Prior research documents a significant positive association between analysts' forecast errors and the current year earnings effect of changes in accounting method. The pervasiveness and robustness of these findings were evaluated by examining a sample of largely unstudied and diverse accounting changes, using different sources of forecasts. Prior work was extended by considering: 1. a variety of voluntary and mandatory changes, 2. the extent of prior disclosure of information regarding the change, 3. the nature of forecast revisions during the year of change, and 4. the bias and dispersion of forecasts in change years as compared to non-change years. The sample included 500 firms that made 612 accounting changes between 1976 and 1984. The results are consistent with the view that earnings' forecasts are more dispersed and less accurate in a year with an accounting change.


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