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Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Export

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Creating credible commitments: Third party security guarantees and power-sharing pacts are important.

Third party - When a fairly equal balance of power exists between the combatants, it is easier. Information is more dependable. If the balance is not there, then the thir pary need to be capable of using force. Also, it is important that the third party is willing to serve AND the combatants trust in the commitment of third parties.

Power sharing- Fair elections are not good enough here. Competition is not good. What they need is the protection. Also, military needs to be divided equally, which allows factions to retain some ability to defend themselves. Territorially, letting the factions preserve their territories would make them feel safe when things go bad.

yk5 (public note) - 2007-10-16 11:31:07

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Why do some civil wars end in successfully implemented peace settlements while others are fought to the finish? Numerous competing theories address this question. Yet not until now has a study combined the historical sweep, empirical richness, and conceptual rigor necessary to put them thoroughly to the test and draw lessons invaluable to students, scholars, and policymakers. Using data on every civil war fought between 1940 and 1992, Barbara Walter details the conditions that lead combatants to partake in what she defines as a three-step process--the decision on whether to initiate negotiations, to compromise, and, finally, to implement any resulting terms. Her key finding: rarely are such conflicts resolved without active third-party intervention. Walter argues that for negotiations to succeed it is not enough for the opposing sides to resolve the underlying issues behind a civil war. Instead the combatants must clear the much higher hurdle of designing credible guarantees on the terms of agreement--something that is difficult without outside assistance. Examining conflicts from Greece to Laos, China to Columbia, Bosnia to Rwanda, Walter confirms just how crucial the prospect of third-party security guarantees and effective power-sharing pacts can be--and that adversaries do, in fact, consider such factors in deciding whether to negotiate or fight. While taking many other variables into account and acknowledging that third parties must also weigh the costs and benefits of involvement in civil war resolution, this study reveals not only how peace is possible, but probable.


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